Dan Gardner

Speaking topics

Presentations listed below include in-person and virtual keynotes, as well as workshops, fireside chats, and other presentation formats.

• Getting Big Things Done On Budget And On Time

  The world’s largest database on major projects — with over 16,000 projects in more than 20 different project categories — revealed that fewer than half of projects (47.9%) finish on budget. Fewer than one in ten (8.5%) are completed on budget and on time. And a nearly invisible 0.5% of all projects are completed on budget, on time, and with the expected benefits. Worse, projects aren’t merely at risk of being a little off. Catastrophic failure is frighteningly common. Even home renovations can easily come in three or four times over budget. And the story is the same around the world.

  If projects are so important, why are we so bad at them? In this talk, Dan Gardner draws on his book How Big Things Get Done to look at why failure is so common and why a rare few projects are triumphs. The mind-expanding lessons about how we conceive, plan, and deliver major projects apply to projects of every imaginable variety, at every scale, from home renovations to space exploration.

• Risk Perception and Misperception

  We sometimes worry about things we shouldn’t and don’t worry about things we should. Worse, we dismiss clear evidence that our risk perceptions are off the mark and we act in ways that may leave us poorer, unhealthier, and less safe.

  In this stimulating and entertaining presentation, Dan Gardner shows the explanation lies in our brain and the ancient environment that shaped it. The good news? Understanding how psychology can lead us astray is the first step to catching our mistakes about risk and making smarter decisions.

• The Swiss Army Knife of Decision-Making Tools

  How many piano tuners are there in Chicago? You don’t know the answer. You have no relevant data. So how can you make the most accurate estimate possible? By using a method developed by the legendary physicist Enrico Fermi, a method that is still taught in physics and engineering departments today.

  In this entertaining talk for executives who make tough decisions in the face of uncertainty, Dan Gardner introduces “Fermi estimates” and shows how it can be used to make forecasts, judge risks, improve plans, and even create an early warning system to protect from life’s disasters.

• From Forecasting to Superforecasting

  Accurately forecasting the near- to medium-range future isn’t impossible. But it is hard. And doing it better than your competitors is that much harder.

  In this presentation, Dan Gardner delves into the largest study of forecasting ever undertaken — a program sponsored by the United States Office of the Director of National Intelligence. Among the many revelations was the discovery of a small percentage of forecasters who were consistently outstanding.

  What makes these “superforecasters” so good? They are well-informed, but superforecasters don’t owe their success to specialist knowledge or secret information.  They are intelligent, but it isn’t their IQ that makes them the best. And they are numerate, but their accuracy isn’t the product of algorithms and arcane math.

  What makes the difference is how they think. And that isn’t something they’re born with. The cognitive characteristics and mental habits of superforecasters can be learned, adopted, and practiced. With the right attitude and effort, any forecaster can become a superforecaster.

• Building a Team that Delivers

  Big projects need a diverse array of people and organizations to come together and work as a team. Managers know that. They talk about teamwork constantly. They urge people to pull together. And yet big projects routinely fail to deliver as promised because too often people and organizations do not come together and become a real team.

  In this talk, Dan Gardner draws on dramatic case studies to show how project leaders overcame common barriers to create a powerful sense of shared identity, purpose, and commitment to the project. By doing that, they created true teams. And those teams moved mountains.