We sometimes worry about things we shouldn’t and don’t worry about things we should. Worse, we dismiss clear evidence that our risk perceptions are off the mark and we act in ways that may leave us poorer, unhealthier, and less safe.

In this stimulating and entertaining presentation, Dan Gardner shows the explanation lies in our brain and the ancient environment that shaped it. The good news? Understanding how psychology can lead us astray is the first step to catching our mistakes about risk and making smarter decisions.

You’re sure you’ve got a risk figured out but the people on the other side of the table don’t believe you. You show them the data. They shrug. Doesn’t matter, they say. You are astonished. “But the data proves I am right! Look at the data!” They shrug. Not convinced, they say. This makes no sense. “Look at the data and stop being irrational!” Now they’re unconvinced and angry.

This scenario has played out a thousand times in a thousand places and it always ends badly. The problem lies in a failure to understand that while logic and numbers matter in people’s thinking, they often matter much less than we realize. In this presentation, Dan Gardner explores the fundamentals of how people perceive, think, and decide — then shows how we can speak to what really shapes people’s judgements with language that engages, informs, and changes minds.

Accurately forecasting the near- to medium-range future isn’t impossible. But it is hard. And doing it better than your competitors is that much harder.

In this presentation, Dan Gardner delves into the largest study of forecasting ever undertaken — a program sponsored by the United States Office of the Director of National Intelligence. Among the many revelations was the discovery of a small percentage of forecasters who were consistently outstanding.

What makes these “superforecasters” so good? They are well-informed, but superforecasters don’t owe their success to specialist knowledge or secret information.  They are intelligent, but it isn’t their IQ that makes them the best. And they are numerate, but their accuracy isn’t the product of algorithms and arcane math.

What makes the difference is how they think. And that isn’t something they’re born with. The cognitive characteristics and mental habits of superforecasters can be learned, adopted, and practiced. With the right attitude and effort, any forecaster can become a superforecaster.

Even the best forecasters can see only a short distance into the future, and in business and at home we have to plan many years ahead. Sometimes we even have to plan decades into the future. But, if we can’t see what’s coming, how can we plan for it?

Brilliant thinkers have wrestled with this problem for a century and they have developed many techniques for grappling with the long-term future: scenarios, sign-posting, stress-testing, pre-mortems, retrocasting, and many others. The details vary but they all ask “What if?” What if the future played out this way, or that way, or some other way? What position would my company be in? What about my family?

Good long-term planning is about designing a plan that works well across a wide array of possible futures. But how wide is “wide”? That’s the tricky part. And it’s where this approach so often falls down.

Evolution has shaped us to think short-term. That means we tend to assume recent experience will continue, no matter how far out we look. So, while we do see a range of possible futures ahead, it tends to be a narrow range. It’s like we have tunnel vision. And a planner with tunnel vision is in trouble.

Drawing on the latest psychology and neuroscience, along with startling stories drawn from history, Dan Gardner shows how to smash the tunnel walls to see the full array of possible futures, and make plans that deliver no matter what the future brings.