We’ve certainly had some memorable moments when the proverbial economic rug was pulled from under us. Think September 11th, the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis, or the onset of the pandemic.

But 2025 is different — and in many ways, more unnerving. The uncertainty isn’t from a single event, but from ongoing pronouncements from the White House around tariffs. They’re on, off, then on again — and maybe off tomorrow. Add to these “tariff tantrums” the other anxieties keeping us awake, such as wars, extreme weather, political polarization, and cost of living. I’m not the first economist to say it: it’s madness.

So how should corporate leaders react? How can industry associations steady their members? And how might business owners position themselves in this chaos?

First, we need to accept that traditional economic forecasting is mostly futile right now.

As someone who spent nearly three decades in corporate finance and forecasting, I get the instinct to prepare a forecast — and in some cases, it’s a regulatory requirement.

But the forecast will be wrong. I like to joke that good forecasting is this: revise frequently! That way you’re never wrong. In 2025, you could revise your outlook daily — even hourly — and still miss the mark. It’s a pointless exercise.

Instead, we should borrow wisdom from ancient philosophers — the Stoics. Three in particular — Epictetus, Seneca, and Marcus Aurelius — taught nearly 2,000 years ago. Their basic tenets:

• Focus on what you can control; release what you cannot.
• You control your character, actions and reactions, and how you treat others.
• External things (wealth, health, reputation) are beyond control; only virtue leads to lasting contentment.

Let’s apply these to corporate leadership in 2025.

1. Recognize What You Can’t Control

This is tough for Type A leaders who crave control. But tariffs, interest rates, wars, and commodity prices are beyond even the most powerful CEO’s reach. At best, leaders might influence decisions. We’ve seen, for example, how US auto industry heads managed to slow down certain tariffs under President Trump — but not eliminate them.

What we cannot control is important to notice and understand. We don’t ignore them, but we must not let them take any of our energy worrying about them.

2. Focus On What You Can Control

The Stoics emphasized individual character, which they defined through four virtues: wisdom, discipline, courage, and justice. These apply to individuals and organizations alike.

Take justice. A company can act justly toward employees, customers, and competitors. Sadly, history gives us examples of what happens when companies don’t — remember Enron? Or Lehman Brothers?

In times of chaos, leaders may justify unfair practices “for the shareholders.” But this is shortsighted, and erodes corporate character, eventually leading to failure.

3. Wealth, Health, and Reputation — While Nice — Are Beyond Our Control

They called these “preferred indifferents.” It’s better to have them, but our happiness and integrity shouldn’t depend on them.

Most of us grasp this personally — money doesn’t buy happiness. Yet in corporate life, it’s harder to accept. What good is a company if it’s not posting record profits? What about shareholders demanding higher returns? Shouldn’t leaders protect the brand?

Of course, profits and reputation matter. But every leader must ask: In chasing these, were my actions unjust, dishonest, unwise, or cowardly?

The 2025 economy offers no easy path. It’s chaos, plain and simple.

But by applying Stoic wisdom — focusing on what we can control, protecting our character, acting with courage, and treating others with justice — we can find stability amid the storm. Economic downturns come and go, but these principles will help us navigate our way through.

Todd Hirsch is an internationally renowned economist, keynote speaker, and author whose research and work focuses on enhancing adaptability in an ever-changing world. Having had a front row seat to key issues transforming the global economy for the past 25 years, he delivers dynamic, clear-eyed talks on adaptability, creativity, and resilience to help industry and business leaders prepare for a future that is volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous.

With heightened levels of global volatility and complexity, Todd provides audiences with practical tools and strategies to navigate this new turbulent environment. Contact us to learn more about Todd and what he can bring to your next event.