With the US being Canada’s largest trading partner, a significant social and cultural influence, and a global superpower, US presidential elections can have a substantial impact on several aspects of Canadian life. And in 2024, the stakes have never been higher.
This year’s US election is shaping up to be one of the most critical, not only domestically but internationally as well. To gain further insight into why, we asked some of our geopolitical and economic expert speakers to share some of the trends they’re watching heading into the 2024 election and the impact they may have on Canadians moving forward.
Tariffs and Technology
Janice Gross Stein
Founding Director of the Munk School of Global Affairs, University of Toronto
The upcoming US election is the most consequential election in modern US history with global implications. Canada, more than any other country, will be caught up in the wake, since we, more than any other country, are dependent on exporting into US markets. We need to pay special attention to what the next US president will do on tariffs and on industrial policy. Both of these strategies have enormous implications right across the Canadian economy and will create new challenges for Canada.
I am also watching closely what incentives the next US president will put in place to support advanced technology and what constraints he or she will put on allies on the kinds of technology products we can export into global markets. The next decade will be dominated by an all-out race for technological leadership. Countries and businesses that don’t compete will be out of the game.
Few people have a better understanding of global issues than Professor Janice Gross Stein. Her dynamic presentations — both realistic and hopeful — provide a unique perspective into what’s really happening around the world and what it means to her audiences.
Loosening Regulations Impacting Canada’s Competitiveness
Todd Hirsch
Navigator of Economic Disruption | Speaker | Author
All eyes are on the US federal election this fall and a lot hangs in the balance for Canada.
Ms. Harris hasn’t rolled out a detailed economic plan yet, but it’s safe to assume relative continuity from the Biden administration. While not particularly trade friendly, the Biden/Harris government has at least been a stable and predictable administration.
Mr. Trump, however, presents more unpredictable possibilities that could impact Canada. Most significant is a threat of 10% tariffs on trading partners — presumably including Canada. Cancelling the USMCA (formerly NAFTA) is a worst-case scenario for Canada’s economy.
Another significant worry is Mr. Trump’s promise to relax environmental regulations in America’s oil industry. Canadian oil — our most valuable export — competes directly with American oil. Loosening regulations state-side would increase US production, pushing prices lower, and automatically make Canada less competitive. Capital spending, investment, and even labour would be pulled south.
Todd Hirsch is an internationally renowned economist, keynote speaker, and author. Having had a front row seat to key issues transforming the global economy for the past 25 years, he delivers dynamic, clear-eyed talks to help industry and business leaders prepare for a future that is volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous.
Economic Risks of a Second Trump Presidency
Rudyard Griffiths
Co-Founder, Chair, and Moderator of the Munk Debates
The economic risks of a second Trump presidency to Canada cannot be overstated. The country’s prosperity is in the crosshairs, and wishing away the proverbial asteroid currently aimed at our closest trading and security relationship isn’t a viable strategy for success. The key thing decision makers need to understand about a second Trump presidency is its immediate and relentless velocity. To state the obvious, there is no third term for Trump. In the first year of his administration, two at the most, Trump will have to cement his legislative and executive agenda, with whatever time leftover being used to stake his vainglorious claim for a spot on Mount Rushmore.
Rudyard Griffiths never shies away from discussing the big issue of the day. As the Senior Fellow at the Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy and the co-founder, chair, and moderator of the Munk Debates — Canada’s premier international debate series, — Griffiths is a highly sought-after commentator on global economics, geopolitics, and corporate decision making.
Authenticity and Trust Will Win the Election
Evan Solomon
Publisher, GZERO Media | Special Correspondent, CTV News
Canadians watching the volatile US election have three key trends to watch:
Authenticity animates issues: In the age of distrust, authenticity
matters more than ever, No one will listen to you if they don’t
believe in your conviction. While issues like abortion, security,
economy, immigration, health care and taxes all drive elections, the
candidate has to be authentic to make these connect. Trump supporters
love him because he is, authentically, what he is. He speaks his mind
without a teleprompter and puts his personality, in all its aspects,
on full, preening display. Harris picked Governor Tim Walz to shore up
her authenticity bona fides, with his flannel shirts and camo hats, he
is there to prove that Democrats have a stake in the America that
hunts, joins the service, and coaches football, all campaign code words
for middle America. Trust trumps everything else in 2024.
Campaigns matter more than polls: Think about all the recent changes in the US election. Donald Trump is convicted of 34 felonies and some pundits count him out. Wrong. Biden has a disastrous debate performance and pundits say the Democrats are cooked. Wrong. Trump survives the horrific assassination attempt and pumps his fist and pundits say the race is over and the Republican are now a lock. Wrong. Biden is pushed out and Kamala Harris joins the race and after a successful convention some pundits say the Democrats have it in the bag. Way too early to make the call. For Canadians watching it shows that no matter what they see in the polls, until the campaign starts, nothing is inevitable.
Leadership matters: Trump is a known commodity and brings a strong base of MAGA believers, but can his dark message of “American carnage” attract new voters and widen his base? He is so polarizing that it makes it hard to grow support. Harris is new and casts herself as a happy warrior, reenergizing a moribund Democratic party, boosting donations and volunteers in a way Biden could not. She has changed the party image and tone, but can she survive 75 days of hard scrutiny?
Evan Solomon has covered Canadian and global politics for more than 25 years and has a deep insight into the economic, social, and technological impact of political forces at play today, and what they mean for our future. In his keynotes, Evan not only provides an overview of what’s happening today, but also the events to watch for that will soon be driving politics.
Speaking to some of the biggest issues facing us today, our geopolitical speakers from the tops of their fields in business, politics, journalism, and more help audiences make sense of global issues and their impact locally, nationally, and internationally.
Contact us to learn more about our geopolitical experts and how to book your conference speaker today.
