Ian Morrison

Ian Morrison is an internationally known author, consultant, and futurist specializing in long-term forecasting and planning with particular emphasis on health care and the changing business environment. He combines research and consulting skills with an incisive Scottish wit to help public and private organizations plan their longer-term future.

Morrison has written, lectured, and consulted on a wide variety of forecasting, strategy, and health care topics for government, industry, and a variety of non-profit organizations. He has worked with more than 100 Fortune 500 companies in health care, manufacturing, information technology, and financial services.

He is the author of Healthcare in the New Millennium: Vision, Values and Leadership. His previous book:The Second Curve - Managing The Velocity of Change was a New York Times Business Bestseller and Businessweek Bestseller. Morrison has co-authored several books and chapters, including Future Tense: The Business Realities of the Next Ten Years and Looking Ahead at American Health Care. He also has co-authored numerous journal articles for publications such as Chief Executive, Encyclopaedia Britannica, Across the Board, The British Medical Journal, New England Journal of Medicine, and Health Affairs.

Morrison is President Emeritus of the Institute for the Future (IFTF). He is a founding partner in Strategic Health Perspectives a joint venture between Harris Interactive and the Harvard School of Public Health's Department of Health Policy and Management. From 1996-1999, Morrison was retained by Accenture (formerly Andersen Consulting) as Chairman of the Health Futures Forum. In that capacity, he chaired a number of international forums on the future of healthcare.

Before coming to IFTF in 1985, Morrison spent seven years in British Columbia, Canada, in a variety of research, teaching, and consulting positions. He holds an interdisciplinary Ph.D. in urban studies from the University of British Columbia; an M.A. in geography from the University of Edinburgh, Scotland, and a graduate degree in urban planning from the University of Newcastle-upon-Tyne, England).

He is a member of the Board of Directors of Spherion Corporation (an NYSE company); a past director of the Health Research and Education Trust (HRET), the research and education arm of the American Hospital Association; a director and current vice-chair of the California Health Care Foundation; and a past director of the Center for Healthcare Design. Morrison also serves as a member of the Stakeholders Advisory Committee of the Program on Health System Improvement at Harvard University.

• The Future of the Healthcare Marketplace

  Healthcare is in a state of flux. Managed care faltered as it came under increasing scrutiny by the media, the consumer, and the regulators. Healthcare costs are rising and the burden is increasingly being shifted to consumers. Large scale vertical integration in healthcare has not taken place, rather we have seen massive horizontal consolidation of pharmaceutical companies, health plans, hospital systems, and to a lesser extent physician groups. Increased consumerism amplified by the internet creates new opportunities and new challenges. The industry is looking for a new direction and a new vision, but we fall prey to fads, as organizations are stretched thin by the roller coaster of change in management philosophy, reimbursement, and medical technology. This presentation will focus on the political, economic, and strategic context of change in healthcare and examine how the various actors are preparing for the future. It will identify the leadership challenges and opportunities that lie ahead and will provide strategic insights on how organizations and individuals can flourish in the new millennium in healthcare.

• The Second Curve: Managing the Velocity of Change

  The thesis of Ian Morrison's The Second Curve: Managing the Velocity of Change) is that most businesses in most industries are going along quite nicely on their first curve (their core business) where they make all their profit and revenue. Then along comes a second curve - a new business or completely new way of doing business - that threatens to replace the first curve. The second curve is driven by the confluence of three powerful driving forces: new technologies, such as the Internet; new consumers, who are smarter, more affluent, more skeptical and more demanding than the previous generation; and new markets, such as China, with its 1.2 billion consumers. The challenge is to gauge how fast the second curve will take over and develop strategy accordingly. All of the current profit is on the First Curve, all of the future growth is on the Second Curve. But there is a natural human tendency to overestimate the impact of phenomena in the short run, and underestimate it in the long run. The key is to understand and manage the velocity of change.

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